New Article: Tunisia - Strengthening of Security Force Unions Blunts Internal Control

I'm delighted to launch my latest article: 'Tunisia - Strengthening of Security Force Unions Blunts Internal Control.'

Published by ISPI and DCAF, as part of a broader dossier on pressing security force challenges in MENA, the article analyzes Tunisia's security force unions.

It traces the evolution of the syndicates, their growing strength and their evolving political role. The article then assess efforts by Tunisian President Kais Saied to unify the unions, and details the potential impacts a unified syndicate, as well as the current un-unified union system, could have on security governance under the new constitution.

The article can be found here (along with the broader dossier): https://www.ispionline.it/it/pubblicazione/tunisia-strengthening-security-force-unions-blunts-internal-control-35925

New Report: 'Fragile States and Resilient Criminal Ecosystems - Human Smuggling and Trafficking Trends in North Africa and the Sahel'

Delighted to launch my latest report "Fragile States and Resilient Criminal Ecosystems - Human Smuggling and Trafficking Trends in North Africa and the Sahel."

Written with Mark Micallef, the report looks at how the human smuggling ecosystem in North Africa and the Sahel changed in 2021. It assess dynamics along the major routes connecting Africa to Europe, as well as at key Saharan human smuggling points, such as Timbuktu and Gao in Mali, and Tahoua, Kouri Kantana and Agadez in Niger.

The report also looks at why dynamics have evolved, analyzing the contrast between the weak economic resilience and fragility shown by states in North Africa and the Sahel and human smuggling and trafficking ecosystems, which have generally shown great adaptability. It looks in particular at the instrumentalization of migration management by states and armed groups in order to gain diplomatic, political, economic or legitimacy goals, and the risks this poses to states and to migrants.

Finally, the report lays out some scenarios for how dynamics may evolve in the second half of this year and offers some brief recommendations.

The report can be found here: https://globalinitiative.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Human-smuggling-and-trafficking-ecosystems-Overview.pdf

New report: 'Tunisia - Growing Irregular Migration Flows Amid Worsening Political Fragility

I'm delighted to announce the publication of my new report, 'Tunisia - Growing Irregular Migration Flows Amid Worsening Political Fragility.’

The report looks at the evolution of human smuggling and trafficking in Tunisia in 2021, as well as assessing the political and economic dynamics with intensified during the year. It ends with a brief look ahead for the second half of 2022.

It can be access here: https://globalinitiative.net/analysis/human-smuggling-trafficking-ecosystems-north-africa-sahel/

New Report: Blessing And Curse: Petroleum profits, control and fragility in Libya.

I'm delighted to announce the publication of my new report, 'Blessing And Curse: Petroleum profits, control and fragility in Libya.’ Written with Emad Badi for the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, the report looks at how Libya’s petroleum wealth has had both a positive and negative impact on the country's fragility. 

The benefits of oil are well known, with profits from petroleum sales providing citizens and the state with an economic buffer, offsetting the impacts of weak state capacity, chaotic politics and violence. 

However, the central economic importance of petroleum products has also led to negative impacts on fragility. This is not due to one single dimension, but rather a confluence of separate, though often reinforcing, dynamics. Perceptions of unfair resource allocation have led communities in oil and gas producing areas and regions to disrupt production, in order to press for jobs and a more equitable sharing of profits.  Conflict entrepreneurs have transformed the control of oil and gas infrastructure into an economic weapon.  The official entity tasked with protecting infrastructure and ensuring production, the Petroleum Facilities Guard, is a key part of the problem, with field units repeatedly halting production and transport of oil and gas.

The report delves into these dynamics in greater depth and sketches out a synchronized strategy to address them, involving targeted economic development, security sector reform, and national dialogue on resource sharing. 

The report ican be found here: http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/libyen/19331.pdf