New Article: Breaking the cycle - The GI-TOC addresses extortion at International Migration Review Forum Multistakeholder Hearing.

Extortion is not only a driver of migration but also a pervasive danger faced by migrants on the move, particularly those who use people-smuggling services, and more needs to be done to address the vulnerabilities and structural challenges that underpin these two issues.

In advance of the The International Migration Review Forum, Guillermo Vázquez del Mercado, Alice Fereday, Rupert Horsley, and I delve into the subject in this new article for the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime

The article is available here: https://globalinitiative.net/analysis/international-migration-review-forum-extortion/

New Chapter: Largely fleeting and hardly convergent: Libyas crime-terror nexus

I'm delighted to announce my latest publication: "Largely fleeting and hardly convergent: Libyas crime-terror nexus", authored in collaboration with Mark Micallef.

Since the 2011 revolution, Libya has been a state beset by conflict and fragility. Much of the international community's focus on Libya has been on ramifications of this weakness: terrorism, organized crime, and the risk of a crime-terror nexus. However, despite international concerns and ample opportunity for a nexus to emerge in Libya between terrorist organizations and criminal groups, the striking feature of the post revolution years has been the general paucity of engagement between the two types of actors. ISIS attempts in Sirte to profiteer from criminals failed, in part because the group's limited geographic footprint was easily circumventable by criminal actors. In Sabratha, contrasting incentives between ISIS and criminal groups, and the military power of the criminals, enabled the expulsion of the terrorists. In southern Libya, in contrast, AQIM has endured by pursuing a low-key approach, which accommodated local communities and armed groups. The cases presented underscore that Libya, saturated as it is with well-armed actors that depend on the black economy for their funding, is a difficult context to access for foreign terrorist organizations seeking to profit from the country's illicit economy.

The chapter is available here, though it is behind a paywall: https://www.elgaronline.com/view/edcoll/9781788979290/9781788979290.00023.xml

New Report: The Challenge of Coordinating Border Management Assistance between Europe and the Maghreb

I'm delighted to announce the publication of my new report, 'The Challenge of Coordinating Border Management Assistance between Europe and the Maghreb.'

Written for the Migration Policy Institute’s Transatlantic Council on Migration, the report examines the border security situation within the Maghreb and the efforts of the European Union and its member states to address challenges stemming from a complex migration picture and differing perspectives and policy priorities of Maghrebi and European policymakers. It offers lessons and recommendations as Europe commits new resources to build Maghrebi state capacity to reduce irregular migration and address border security challenges such as transnational terrorism and human, arms and drug smuggling.

A PDF of the report is attached and can also be accessed here: www.migrationpolicy.org/research/border-management-europe-maghreb.

New Report: ‘Losing hope: Why Tunisians are leading the surge in irregular migration to Europe’

Between 2020 and mid-2021, migration from and through Tunisia rose to levels not seen since the months following the 2011 revolution.

The reasons for this surge are complex, with no single factor responsible for the rise in departures. Rather, the decisions of Tunisian irregular migrants – who make up the overwhelming thrust behind these rising numbers – have been influenced by an interplay of economic and social factors. These include a worsening economic situation at home, poor career options, the social repercussions of unemployment or underemployment, and pessimism about the ability or willingness of Tunisia’s political leadership to improve the situation in the country.

The factors driving transit migration by foreigners through Tunisia are more opaque. They are linked principally to the risks associated with other transit routes in North Africa, such as Libya, as well as the rising number of irregular migrants living in Tunisia.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had two significant impacts on the dynamics of foreign migrants using Tunisia as a transit point. First, public-health measures implemented by the Tunisian government led to significant job losses among its migrant population. Second, it led to an inflow of migrants from sub-Saharan Africa from Tunisia’s neighbours, primarily Algeria, where they had been living, and where job losses and fears of deportation mounted during the COVID-19 pandemic.

As numbers have increased, the means by which migrants leave Tunisia and travel to Europe has also evolved. The importance of human smugglers for migrants, especially Tunisian nationals, is waning as growing numbers of young Tunisians choose instead to ‘self-smuggle’, pooling their money, sourcing boats, engines and fuel, and departing on their own.

The irregular migration surge seen in 2020 and 2021 breaks with the generally low-level flows seen throughout the decade; however, the shift is likely to be sustained over the foreseeable future.

This report begins by detailing the rise in irregular migration from Tunisia to Europe in 2020 and 2021. It next assesses the dynamics that led to the surge, including those responsible for the rise in irregular migration by foreigners through Tunisia. The report then turns to the structure of human smuggling networks along the Tunisian littoral, and the broader means through which irregular migrants embark from the country. Finally, an assessment is offered of the security forces responsible for border control and laws salient to irregular migration, along with Tunisia’s politics of irregular migration.

The full report is available here.